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Astral Codex Ten published a November 2026 links roundup covering AI risk forecasts, California flood preparedness, work and status in a possible AI-driven future, and other subjects. The author warns that links in the post have not all been independently verified and may contain errors or misleading claims.
Astral Codex Ten published its November 2026 links roundup, a collection of commentary and outside material that includes forecasts about rogue AI and California flooding. The author says the links have not all been independently verified and warns that commenters typically find evidence that two or three items in each roundup are wrong or misleading.
The roundup ranges across internet curiosities, politics, technology, science, and social life. One item cites Sentinel, a forecasting project described by the author as having a good track record, which predicts a 25% chance of a rogue AI exfiltrating its weights over the next 12 months. The post does not provide the forecast’s methodology or define the precise conditions that would count as exfiltration.
On weather, the author relays a warning from Sentinel-affiliated forecaster @belikewater that California is predicted to have a much rainier-than-normal winter and that residents should check roofs and gutters. The forecaster is quoted as giving a 2.5% chance of a major flood. The author then reports an AI superforecaster’s interpretation of that risk: an 8% chance of a flood causing at least $10,000 in damage to at least 100,000 homes, and a 2% chance of that damage level affecting at least one million homes. These are the author’s account of a forecast interpretation, not an independently established weather outlook.
Other entries discuss a historical essay about life without productive work, the lab-leak debate, claims about radio observations and the Wow! signal, and an asserted NVIDIA purchase of Hugging Face for $12.9303 billion. The source gives no transaction documentation for that deal, and the roundup presents it as a link-item claim rather than independently verified reporting. The list also includes lighter material, such as an island said to be covered by one house and jokes based on names and anagrams.
Forecasts Raise Practical Questions
The roundup puts attention on risks whose probability estimates are neither predictions of certainty nor reasons to assume nothing will happen. For California readers, the practical point is the cited advice to prepare homes for a wet winter. But the post’s flood figures come from different layers of interpretation, and their definitions and underlying sources matter before readers treat them as a reliable estimate of household risk.
The AI forecast also illustrates why the roundup’s caveat matters. A 25% probability over 12 months is a forecast, not evidence that an incident has occurred or will occur. Readers need the forecaster’s definition, track record, and supporting analysis to judge what the number means. The post serves chiefly as a guide to material worth examining, rather than as a single verified account of an event.
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A Curated Mix, Not a Verified Bulletin
Links posts on Astral Codex Ten collect outside articles, social-media posts, forecasts, and the author’s reactions. This format gives readers a broad set of leads, but it does not make every linked claim equivalent to a fact checked by the publication. The author explicitly says individual links have not been independently checked and that corrections are made as evidence emerges.
The author also distinguishes some of the material from personal interpretation. For example, the estimates translating a general flood probability into numbers of affected homes are described as the output of an AI superforecaster the author consulted. The author’s assessment that a low-probability disaster deserves more attention is commentary, not an official warning or a reported finding from emergency authorities.
“I haven’t independently verified each link.”
— Astral Codex Ten author
Definitions and Sources Remain Open
The post does not identify the exact criteria behind Sentinel’s rogue-AI forecast, provide its supporting evidence, or explain how the 12-month probability was calculated. The meaning of “major flood” in the cited California estimate is also not specified in the supplied material. The author’s AI-generated estimates use particular damage and household thresholds, but the post does not provide a full method for deriving them.
Several other entries are links or claims rather than verified developments. The source itself cautions that some items may be wrong or misleading, and says corrections may appear later. It is not clear from the roundup whether all linked claims, including the reported NVIDIA-Hugging Face purchase, have been confirmed by the organizations involved. The supplied text also ends partway through its final listed item, so it does not establish what additional links, if any, appeared in the complete post.
Corrections and Forecast Updates
The author says corrections will be made as evidence is spotted and that important corrections may be highlighted later. Readers who rely on a particular claim should consult its original source and look for updates, rather than treating the roundup alone as confirmation.
For the weather item, the next useful information would be updated seasonal forecasts and guidance from relevant local authorities as the winter develops. The roundup does not specify a forecast-update schedule or identify a date for follow-up on the AI-risk estimate.
Key Questions
What is the November 2026 post?
It is an Astral Codex Ten links roundup that combines outside links with the author’s summaries and reactions on topics including AI, weather, culture, and science.
Did the author verify every item?
No. The author says the links were not independently verified one by one and warns that commenters often identify two or three items per post as wrong or misleading.
What does the post say about California flooding?
It relays a prediction of a wetter-than-normal winter and a forecaster’s 2.5% chance of a major flood. The author also gives estimates from an AI superforecaster, but the post does not provide enough methodology to treat those figures as an official risk assessment.
Is the 25% rogue-AI estimate a confirmed event?
No. It is presented as a forecast of a 25% chance over the next 12 months, not as evidence that a rogue AI has exfiltrated its weights.
Will the roundup be updated?
The author says corrections will be made as they are identified and that important ones may be highlighted later. The post does not give a specific update timetable.
Source: astralcodexten.com
