TL;DR
Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post covering local meetup changes, an AI safety grantmaking survey, and two projects discussed by people connected to the blog. Those include MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI, and Common Notes, a proposal to extend community notes beyond social media.
Astral Codex Ten has published Open Thread 456, a weekly community post combining meetup notices with requests for input on AI safety grantmaking and announcements of projects related to AI markets and online notes. The post also gives local election information for readers in the Boston and San Francisco areas, though several dates are not tied to a year in the source text.
The post’s author is seeking responses to a survey about how people value roughly 80 AI safety accomplishments. The author says the responses may help model—and potentially automate—parts of AI grantmaking. A second survey asks participants to predict how the author would answer the first, which the author says could help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in how people assign weights. The post asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to participate.
The thread also relays two project announcements. MNX, described as the latest project from Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is presented as a real-money prediction market focused on AI. According to the post, it allows users to trade futures linked to AI company stocks, bet directly on AI company revenues, and trade on targets such as the Epoch Capabilities Index. The post says both Polymarket and MNX price Anthropic at around $2 trillion, despite discussion of a possible fall from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion; it does not specify what valuation measure or contract terms those figures refer to.
Common Notes, a project from Goodheart Labs, is described as an effort to bring a community-notes model to content beyond one social platform. The post says the planned system would combine AI-written notes, user-written notes and votes on usefulness, and a browser extension intended to display notes across websites. It also lists meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia, and says Boston’s ACX meetup group has completed a Greater Boston general election voting guide.
AI Funding Meets Public Forecasts
The thread links AI grantmaking to two broader questions: how to compare different safety accomplishments and how people can evaluate claims about AI companies. The survey is an attempt to collect judgments in a structured form, rather than relying only on informal discussion. The author says the data could inform modeling of funding decisions, but the post does not claim that the survey will determine grants or that an automated system is ready.
MNX could give participants a way to express expectations about company performance and AI-related targets through market contracts. Such prices are not verified forecasts or established company valuations; they reflect the terms and activity of the relevant markets. Common Notes addresses a different information problem: whether collaborative, AI-assisted annotations can travel with material across the web. The project is described as being developed, not as a proven replacement for existing moderation or fact-checking systems.
For readers, the post is also a practical community bulletin: it points to local gatherings and election resources. Its notices may matter to people deciding whether to attend a meetup, take part in the surveys or use the named projects, but the thread provides links and descriptions rather than detailed evaluations.
AI safety grantmaking survey tools
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A Weekly Community Bulletin
Open Thread 456 is presented by Astral Codex Ten as a weekly open thread where readers can discuss any topic, ask questions and connect through community channels. The post mentions an unofficial subreddit, Discord, bulletin board and in-person meetups. It notes that most content is free, while some is available to subscribers.
The community announcements include changes to meetups in seven locations and an early notice for a Bay Area gathering at Mox in San Francisco, listed for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. The post also says the Boston group has finished a Greater Boston general election voting guide. For San Francisco readers, it gives a same-day, end-of-day mail-in ballot registration deadline and names Scott Wiener as the group’s main congressional endorsement. The year and further details are not provided in the supplied text.
The AI grantmaking survey follows earlier work by the author on modeling parts of the grantmaking process, which the post links to. The thread presents the new questionnaire as a data-collection effort rather than a completed model. MNX and Common Notes are introduced through descriptions of their proposed or available functions, without independent performance evidence in the post.
“I would once again like people who are well-versed in the AI/grantmaking worlds to take a survey on how much they value various things.”
— Astral Codex Ten post author
prediction market platform for AI stocks
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Dates, Markets and Project Status
The supplied post does not state its publication year, so the year for the Oct. 24 meetup and the Monday ballot-registration deadline cannot be confirmed from this material. The post gives no further details on the listed meetup changes, the status or methodology of the surveys, or whether survey findings will be used in actual grant decisions.
For MNX, the post does not provide market rules, trading volumes, contract definitions or the source of the cited $2 trillion figure. Its comparison with talk of a decline to $1.5 trillion does not establish that Anthropic’s value changed or that either number represents a verified valuation. The thread also does not specify when Common Notes will be available, which sites it will support or how it will handle disputed or inaccurate notes.
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Surveys and Meetups Ahead
The immediate next steps named in the post are participation in the AI safety survey and, for those with additional time, its alternate version asking respondents to predict the author’s answers. The post also flags a Bay Area ACX meetup for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, while directing readers to the linked post for the other meetup changes and further information.
The author says there may be more election guides during the following week and that they are still exploring whether a Bay Area guide can be produced. The post does not announce a schedule for further surveys, a release date for Common Notes or future developments at MNX. Those project details remain dependent on updates from their organizers.
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Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is a weekly Astral Codex Ten community post for open discussion, questions and announcements, including meetup and project updates.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask?
It asks respondents, particularly people familiar with AI and grantmaking, to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate survey asks participants to predict how the author would respond to the first questionnaire.
What is MNX?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI, with contracts tied to AI company stocks, revenues and other targets. The thread does not provide contract rules or trading data.
What is Common Notes?
It is a Goodheart Labs project described as a way to show community notes across websites through a mix of AI-generated notes, user contributions and ratings, and a browser extension.
When is the Bay Area meetup?
The post lists it for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. The source text does not give the year, so readers should check the linked post for current details.
Source: rss
